关键词: 油茶（Camellia oleifera Abel.）, 积温, 核密度估计, 采摘期

Abstract: Based on the production data of 80 Camellia oleifera Abel. from 2015 to 2017, and the daily average temperature data of the weather station near the area planting Camellia oleifera Abel. in Hunan province, the correlation analysis and nuclear density estimation method were used to analyze the correlation of accumulated temperature from the phenological period to the picking time and production of Camellia oleifera Abel.. The effect of the interannual variation of average temperature in Hunan province from 1961 to 2017 on the picking period of Camellia oleifera Abel. were analyzed. The results showed that the correlation of production of Camellia oleifera Abel. and accumulated temperature of the average daily temperature above 15 ℃ from the flowering stage to the picking stage was the highest. The most suitable temperature range of picking period of Camellia oleifera Abel. is from 6 286 °C·d to 6 337 °C·d, the suitable temperature range is from 6 257 ℃·d to 6 366 ℃·d, and the generally suitable temperature range is from 6 228 °C·d to 6 395 ℃·d. Through the verification analysis of the suitable accumulated temperature of picking period and the date of sample picking period, it was found that the reasonable picking period of Camellia oleifera Abel. was 2 to 4 days before frosting, which is from 19 to 21 on October. The annual average temperature is increasing in Hunan province, and the temperature tendency rate is 0.187 ℃/10a. It is expected that the temperature rise will lead to the early reasonable picking period of Camellia oleifera Abel. in the future. Climate warming will have an impact on the reasonable picking date of Camellia oleifera Abel.. Therefore, predicting the reasonable picking period according to accumulated temperature can provide a scientific basis for production of Camellia oleifera Abel.

Key words: Camellia oleifera Abel., accumulated temperature, nuclear density estimation, picking period