窟野河流域基于物理成因概念的次降雨径流产沙统计模型研究

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.03.006

湖北农业科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (3): 31-37.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.03.006

窟野河流域基于物理成因概念的次降雨径流产沙统计模型研究

苏婷婷, 吴志勇, 何海, 孙昭敏

河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210098

收稿日期:2020-12-23 发布日期:2021-02-25
通讯作者: 吴志勇（1979-）,男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及预报研究,（电话）13813879528（电子信箱）wuzhiyong_110@163.com。
作者简介:苏婷婷（1995-）,女,山西长治人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为水文物理规律模拟及预报,（电话）15295576240（电子信箱）13813469269@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51779071; 51579065）; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项（2019B10214）; 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项（HKY-JBYW-2017-12）

Study on statistical model of sub-rainfall runoff sediment yield based on the concept of physical genesis in Kuye river basin

SU Ting-ting, WU Zhi-yong, HE Hai, SUN Zhao-min

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received:2020-12-23 Published:2021-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 黄土高原丘陵沟壑区土壤侵蚀严重,近年来环境变化导致黄河流域水沙急剧减少,在该区开展流域产沙模拟对流域侵蚀产沙研究有重要意义。以窟野河流域为研究对象,利用1961—2016年的水文泥沙资料,采用双累积曲线、累积距平曲线划分不同下垫面代表时期,以流域输沙关系表达式为理论框架,以径流深与洪峰流量为变量,分别构建不同下垫面代表时期的流域场次洪水产沙经验模型。结果表明,不同时期模型的R²均大于0.9,平均相对误差绝对值在30%左右;通过模拟不同时期不同产沙水平的场次洪水发现,随着产沙水平的增大,模型模拟相对误差逐渐减小,模型对大产沙事件的模拟效果优于小产沙事件;通过模拟不同等级降雨侵蚀产沙发现,模型对大雨及暴雨产沙的模拟效果略优于中小雨。

关键词: 不同时期下垫面, 输沙量, 非线性回归, 统计模型, 窟野河流域

Abstract: Soil erosion is serious in the gully area of Loess Plateau. In recent years, environmental changes have led to a sharp decrease in runoff and sediment in the Yellow river basin. So, it is of great significance to establish sediment yield model in the basin for the study of erosion sediment yield. In the Kuye river basin, double accumulation curve, cumulative departure curve and multivariable nonlinear regression method were applied to study the variation trend of water and sediment using hydrologic and sediment data from 1961 to 2016, and empirical models of flood aquatic product sediment in different periods were established in the basin under cushion. The results showed that the determination coefficient of the models in different periods were all more than 0.9 and the average relative error was about 30%. By simulating the field floods with different sediment yield levels in different periods, it was found that the relative error of model simulation gradually decreased with the increase in sediment yield level, and the simulation effect of model on large sediment yield events was better than that of small sediment yield events. The simulation results showed that the model performance in heavy rain was slightly better than that in medium and light rain.

Key words: the underlying surface in different periods, sediment yield, nonlinear regression, statistical model, Kuye river basin

中图分类号:

P333.4

苏婷婷, 吴志勇, 何海, 孙昭敏. 窟野河流域基于物理成因概念的次降雨径流产沙统计模型研究[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2021, 60(3): 31-37.

SU Ting-ting, WU Zhi-yong, HE Hai, SUN Zhao-min. Study on statistical model of sub-rainfall runoff sediment yield based on the concept of physical genesis in Kuye river basin[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2021, 60(3): 31-37.

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窟野河流域基于物理成因概念的次降雨径流产沙统计模型研究

Study on statistical model of sub-rainfall runoff sediment yield based on the concept of physical genesis in Kuye river basin

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