关键词: 大暴雨, 超级单体, 风暴追踪, 短时预警, 荆州市

Abstract: Based on real-time high-altitude and surface meteorological data, ERA-interim reanalysis data and radar data from Europe, a local heavy rain event occurred in Jingzhou city of Hubei province on the morning of June 9, 2017 was analyzed. The results showed that the short-term heavy rain occurred under the favorable weather circulation background, 500 hPa trough moved eastward and superimposed. The low trough in northern Hubei leaded the cold advection to the south, and Jingzhou city lied in the large scale Meiyu front cloud system. Heavy rainstorms were caused by two convective storms. The former convective storm was a super heavy rain storm. During the precipitation process, new convective elements were triggered at the back of radar echoes, forming backward propagation, which was conducive to the occurrence of heavy rain, Before the occurrence of heavy rain, the low-level jet developed vigorously, and the sounding map was composed of upper dry and lower wet, the convective effective potential energy was more than 1 000 J, and the EC fine grid data was forecast. The strong divergence in the upper layer contributed more to the heavy precipitation, and the period of the heavy precipitation corresponded well to the period of the whole layer’s strong upward motion, and the water vapor channel existed in the boundary layer 925 hPa during the heavy precipitation. The analysis of radar data showed that the maximum hourly precipitation was 78 mm at 5：00 on the 9th, and early warning can be considered at this time. Storm tracking information showed that M2 super-monomer was formed at about 5：15, the maximum reflectivity was above 50 dBZ, the vertical liquid water content increased from 25 kg/m² to 40 kg/m², hail index and strong hail index both appeared to jump. At this time, it was the beginning stage of heavy rainfall. Considering the comprehensive analysis of radar data, if short-term warning was issued at this time, the advance amount was relatively large and the accuracy was high.

Key words: rainstorm, super monomer, storm tracking, short-term warning, Jingzhou city