湖北农业科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (2): 247-253,260.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.02.037

• 生活空间优化 • 上一篇    下一篇

2001—2016年中国PM2.5暴露风险的时空演变、时空聚类与风险防控

林奕晨1, 孙思维2, 潘悦2, 刘超群2, 周鹏2   

  1. 1.武汉永业赛博能规划勘测有限公司,武汉 430071;
    2.武汉工程大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-19 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2024-03-14
  • 通讯作者: 潘悦(1983-),男,湖北武汉人,副教授/高级工程师,博士,主要从事城乡空间战略研究,(电话)13707199355(电子信箱)95351721@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:林奕晨(1997-),女,湖北黄冈人,硕士,主要从事时空数据挖掘、大气污染和城市地理方面研究,(电话)13409687955(电子信箱)1026927222@qq.com.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51808413); 湖北省社会科学基金一般项目(后期资助项目)(2020158)

Spatio-temporal evolution, spatio-temporal clustering and risk prevention and control of PM2.5 exposure risk in China from 2001 to 2016

LIN Yi-chen1, SUN Si-wei2, PAN Yue2, LIU Chao-qun2, ZHOU Peng2   

  1. 1. Wuhan Yongye Saiboneng Planning Survey Co., Ltd.,Wuhan 430071,China;
    2. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430074,China
  • Received:2022-09-19 Online:2024-02-25 Published:2024-03-14

摘要: 构建耦合人口加权的空气污染暴露风险(PPM2.5)评估体系,基于探索性时空分析方法开展中国PM2.5及其人群暴露风险的时空演变和时空聚类研究。结果表明,基于时间-空间演变特征分析,发现耦合人口加权的空气污染暴露风险(PPM2.5)格局与PM2.5浓度分布存在空间错位现象;PPM2.5风险等级随区域中心向外围梯度递减,但研究期内其人群暴露的东高西低总体格局不变;其均衡性时空演变呈整体不均衡性加强而局部更趋于均衡的趋势。基于时空扫描统计的K-means聚类分析,划定4种暴露风险类型,分别为稳定低风险型、持续增长风险型、持续高风险型、低-高风险渐变型,各类型分布差异显著且具备不同人口经济特征。针对不同PM2.5人群暴露风险的时空聚类分区制定差异化的空气污染预警和防治策略,有助于提升城市韧性,为“健康中国”发展战略实施提供理论与实践基础。

关键词: PM2.5, 耦合人口加权, 暴露风险, 时空趋势, 时空聚类, 风险防控

Abstract: The coupling population-weighted air pollution exposure risk (PPM2.5) evaluation system was built, and the spatio-temporal evolution and spatio-temporal clustering of PM2.5 and its population exposure risk in China was studied based on exploratory spatiotemporal analysis. The results showed that based on the time-space evolution analysis, it was found that there was a spatial mismatch between the coupling population-weighted air pollution exposure risk (PPM2.5) pattern and the distribution of PM2.5 concentration.The risk level of PPM2.5 decreased with the gradient from the center to the periphery, but the overall pattern of high in the east and low in the west remained unchanged during the study period. The spatial and temporal evolution of its equilibrium showed an enhancement of the overall imbalance and the local equilibrium was more likely. Based on the K-means clustering analysis of spatio-temporal scanning statistics, four types of exposure risk were defined: stable low risk, continuous growth risk, continuous high risk and low-high risk gradual change. The distribution of each type was significantly different with different demographic and economic characteristics. The development of differentiated air pollution warning and prevention strategies based on the spatial and temporal clustering zones of different PM2.5 population exposure risk could help improve urban resilience and provide a theoretical and practical basis for the implementation of the development strategy of “Healthy China”.

Key words: PM2.5, coupled population-weighted, exposure risk, spatio-temporal trend, spatio-temporal clustering, risk prevention

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