关键词: 油茶（Camellia oleifera Abel.）产量, 气象指标, 逐步回归, 物候期, 耒阳县

Abstract: Deep analysis of change and reconstruction of Camellia oleifera Abel. production sequence under climate change could provide a scientific basis for trending and quantitative forecasting of production and ensure grain and oil security. The data of meteorological indexes from 1959 to 2016, and the historical yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. from 1965 to 1990 in Leiyang county, Hunan province, were extracted, the method of related analysis, stepwise regression, linear trend, and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to establish the relationship between meteorological conditions and the yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. with different phenophase. The results show that the yield model established in the flowering period is the best yield model based on meteorological conditions for a single phenophase. The yield model established by 11 phenophase fitting yields as factors is better than that established by single phenophase. This method is suitable for the construction of long-term sequence history production. The reconstructed production data and the measured production data shows a good consistency. The reconstructed production data shows that the yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. is decreasing. Since the 21st century, the fluctuation of Camellia oleifera Abel. production has increased, and the adverse effect of climate conditions on the high yield of Camellia oleifera Abel. is intensifying. There are four kinds of time scale period changes in Camellia oleifera Abel. production.

Key words: production of Camellia oleifera Abel., meteorological indexes, stepwise regression, phenophase, Leiyang county