关键词: 空气质量, 气象要素, 预报方法, 滁州

Abstract: Based on the daily air quality data and meteorological data of January 2015 to May 2017 in Chuzhou,the relationship between air quality and meteorological factors were analyzed,and an air quality prediction model based on meteorological factors was established,the results showed that air pollutants were dominated by PM2.5,mainly in winter and spring,followed by O₃,mainly in summer. When Chuzhou had a moderate pollution in the region,it played an important role in the transportation of pollution from the northwest. Wind speed and precipitation were negatively correlated with AQI and all kinds of pollutants,there was a significant negative correlation between temperature and PM10,PM2.5,NO₂,CO. Temperature was positively correlated O₃. Sunshine hours and relative humidity were significantly positively correlated with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. The prediction model had good prediction effect on AQI,PM10,PM2.5 and O₃ which could meet the daily business requirements,but had relatively poor prediction effect on NO₂,the standardized mean error（NME） was over 30%,and its concentration was overestimated.

Key words: air quality, meteorological factors, prediction method, Chuzhou