ORYZA（V3）模型对珠三角地区双季稻参数的模拟效果及验证分析

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.02.010

湖北农业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (2): 64-68.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.02.010

ORYZA（V3）模型对珠三角地区双季稻参数的模拟效果及验证分析

叶树春¹, 王广伦², 钟珑¹, 曾繁威¹, 陈元哲¹, 孔正圆³

1.广东省云浮市气象局,广东云浮 527300;
2.广东省农业气象试验站,广东佛山 528225;
3.广东省郁南县气象局,广东郁南 527100

收稿日期:2024-03-05 出版日期:2025-02-25 发布日期:2025-03-07
作者简介:叶树春（1979-）,男,广东和平人,高级工程师,主要从事气象服务及应用气象研究,（电子信箱）55592601@qq.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2021Z059）; 云浮市科技计划项目（S2023020202）

The simulation effect and verification analysis of ORYZA（V3） model on the parameters of double-cropping rice in the Pearl River Delta Region

YE Shu-chun¹, WANG Guang-lun², ZHONG Long¹, ZENG Fan-wei¹, CHEN Yuan-zhe¹, KONG Zheng-yuan³

1. Yunfu Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Yunfu 527300, Guangdong, China;
2. Guangdong Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station, Foshan 528225, Guangdong, China;
3. Yunan Meteorological Bureau of Guandong Province, Yunan 527100, Guangdong, China

Received:2024-03-05 Published:2025-02-25 Online:2025-03-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以珠三角地区为研究区,基于2018—2020年不同播期双季稻的生长发育观测数据以及当地气象和土壤数据,利用2018—2019年的数据对ORYZA（V3）模型进行校准,以调整和确定作物的基本参数,使用2020年双季稻的生育期、叶面积指数和生物量等数据对模型进行验证。结果表明,ORYZA（V3）模型对珠三角双季稻的生育期具有较高的模拟精度,与实测值相比误差范围为0~3 d。ORYZA（V3）模型对2020年早稻和晚稻叶面积指数动态变化的模拟准确率高,模拟值的平均线性回归系数（α值）接近于1,相关系数（R²）分别为0.670 4和0.766 0,t检验结果显示,模拟值与实测值之间没有显著差异（P>0.05）。ORYZA（V3）模型对水稻地上部各器官生物量的模拟误差较大,但从统计学角度来看但仍在合理范围内,且对晚稻的模拟效果优于早稻。由此可知,通过校准作物参数,ORYZA（V3）模型能准确地模拟水稻的生长情况,可以应用于珠三角地区的水稻生产。

关键词: ORYZA（V3）模型, 双季稻, 模型校准, 模拟效果, 验证, 珠三角地区

Abstract: Taking the Pearl River Delta Region as the research area, based on the growth and development observation data of double-cropping rice at different sowing dates, as well as local meteorological and soil data from 2018 to 2020, the ORYZA（V3） model was calibrated using data from 2018 to 2019 to adjust and determine the basic parameters of the crop. The ORYZA（V3） model was validated using the growth duration, leaf area index and biomass of double-cropping rice in 2020. The results showed that the ORYZA（V3） model accurately simulated the growth duration of double-cropping rice in the Pearl River Delta, with deviations ranging from 0 to 3 days compared to observed values. The simulated dynamic changes in leaf area index （LAI） for both early and late-season rice in 2020 closely matched the observed values. The average linear regression coefficients （α values） of the simulated LAI were close to 1, accompanied by R² values of 0.670 4 and 0.766 0, respectively. The results of t-test indicated no significant difference between the simulated and observed LAI values （P>0.05）. The ORYZA（V3） model had a large error in simulating the biomass of various organs on the ground of rice, but it was still within an acceptable range from a statistical point of view, and the simulation performance was more accurate for late-season rice than early-season rice. The ORYZA（V3） model could accurately simulate rice growth by calibrating the crop parameters, and could be applied to rice production in the Pearl River Delta region.

Key words: ORYZA （V3） model, double-cropping rice, model calibration, simulation effect, verification, Pearl River Delta Region

中图分类号:

S511
S11⁺9

叶树春, 王广伦, 钟珑, 曾繁威, 陈元哲, 孔正圆. ORYZA（V3）模型对珠三角地区双季稻参数的模拟效果及验证分析[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2025, 64(2): 64-68.

YE Shu-chun, WANG Guang-lun, ZHONG Long, ZENG Fan-wei, CHEN Yuan-zhe, KONG Zheng-yuan. The simulation effect and verification analysis of ORYZA（V3） model on the parameters of double-cropping rice in the Pearl River Delta Region[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2025, 64(2): 64-68.

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ORYZA（V3）模型对珠三角地区双季稻参数的模拟效果及验证分析

The simulation effect and verification analysis of ORYZA（V3） model on the parameters of double-cropping rice in the Pearl River Delta Region

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