关键词: 气候变化, 水稻产量, 情景模拟, C-D-C模型, 长江中下游地区

Abstract: Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as the research object, the data of climate change and rice yield from 1983 to 2023 were collected. By constructing the analysis model and using the econometric method, the key influencing factors of rice yield in this area were analyzed. The results showed that temperature and precipitation were the key factors affecting the yield and planting area of rice, and they were negatively correlated with rice yield. During the growth period of rice, for every 10 mm increase in precipitation, rice yield decreased by 0.450%. For every 1 ℃ increase in temperature, rice yield decreased by 2.450%. From the perspective of future development trend, rice yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River might face a significant downward trend, and the decline would continue to increase. The impact of climate change on rice yield in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was greater than that on rice yield in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Key words: climate change, rice yield, scenario simulation, C-D-C model, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River