关键词: 熵权TOPSIS法, 分数阶GM（1, 1）模型, 土地生态安全评价, 预测

Abstract: The purpose was to effectively evaluate values and predict the trend of land ecological security in Hubei province. Based on the PSR （pressure-state-response） model, the land ecological security assessment index system of Hubei province was built by entropy method and TOPSIS method, and the land ecological security situation of the province were evaluated. Meanwhile, according to the performance evaluation result, comprehensive performance change trend of Hubei province land ecological security in 2017—2019 were predicted and analyzed by using GM（1,1） model with fractional order. The research results showed that the land ecological security comprehensive value in Hubei province was gradually improved from risk stage to critically safe and to safer stage during 2000 to 2016, but the stage of safer was not high in 2016. The pressure index showed a downward trend, while the state and response indexes showed a generally upward trend. Crucial constraints on the improvement of land ecological security included the development of society and economic, the ecological environment and intensive land use. The land ecological security in Hubei province would show a steady upward trend from 2017 to 2019. GM（1,1） model with fractional order had high simulation precision and was able to predict the land ecological security stage.

Key words: methods of entropy-weight and TOPSIS, GM（1, 1） model with fractional order, evaluation of land ecological security, prediction