关键词: 农业碳排放, 环境规制, 农业经济增长, 技术进步, VAR模型

Abstract: Based on the relevant time series data of China from 2001 to 2017, a VAR （vector autoregressive） model was constructed, and the dynamic response mechanism between environmental regulation, agricultural economic growth, technological progress and agricultural carbon emission was empirically studied by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that environmental regulation and technological progress are the reasons for the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions. Agricultural economic growth is the cause of the increase of agricultural carbon emissions; environmental regulation has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions. The negative impact of technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions is relatively weak, while the positive impact of agricultural economic growth on agricultural carbon emissions is obvious, but it is gradually decreasing. In the long run, the effects of environmental regulation, agricultural economic growth and technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions are relatively stable. Finally, based on the above research results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed.

Key words: agricultural carbon emission, environmental regulation, agricultural economic growth, technological progress, VAR model