关键词: 贸易开放, 技术进步, 农业经济增长, MS-VAR

Abstract: Based on the sample data from 2000 to 2018 and MS-VAR model, this study analyzed the relationship between trade opening, technological progress and agricultural economic growth. The results showed that, there are two obvious regional systems in the relationship between trade opening, technological progress and agricultural economic growth. At present, the expansion of trade opening can play a great role in promoting agricultural economic growth. The government should make effective use of the development stage of mutual promotion of trade opening, technological progress and agricultural economic growth, so as to ensure the rapid and sustained growth of agricultural economy. Through the transformation probability matrix of regional system, we can find that the relationship between trade opening, technological progress and agricultural economic growth is relatively stable. Therefore, the government should focus on formulating long-term policies to promote agricultural economic growth. From the analysis of impulse response, it can be seen that in the process of transformation from regional system 1 to regional system 2, the impact response of trade opening and technological progress on agricultural economic growth increases gradually. In the current stage, we should focus on the promotion of trade opening and technological progress to promote agricultural economic growth.

Key words: trade opening, technological progress, agricultural economic growth, MS-VAR