湖北农业科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (2): 67-73.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.02.014

• 资源·环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口因素在空间绿色化过程中的作用机制研究

蒋雨潇1, 朱明仓2, 辜寄蓉1, 赵苑迪1   

  1. 1. 四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,成都 610101;
    2. 四川省自然资源厅,成都 610072
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-15 发布日期:2020-04-24
  • 通讯作者: 辜寄蓉(1968-),女,四川成都人,教授,博士,主要从事地理信息系统理论与应用研究,(电子信箱)annygu126@126.com。
  • 作者简介:蒋雨潇(1994-),女,四川广安人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事空间数据挖掘与分析研究,(电话)18200253695(电子信箱)15524246@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(18BMZ073); 四川省国土资源厅科技项目(2018KJ02)

Research on the management of action mechanism between population spatial factors and green development space

JIANG Yu-xiao1, ZHU Ming-cang2, GU Ji-rong1, ZHAO Yuan-di1   

  1. 1. School of Geographic and Resource Sciences,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China;
    2. Department of Natural Resources of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China
  • Received:2018-12-15 Published:2020-04-24

摘要: 在绿色发展的包容性经济增长的理念下,对人口要素进行了空间表达,并研究了人口空间要素对绿色发展空间的作用机制。应用地理信息方法与空间分析技术,以地理国情监测成果为基础,提取绿色发展空间要素,形成了绿色发展空间格局。同时,提取社会经济要素的空间载体,量化社会经济统计指标,测度社会经济中的传统型资源要素和创新型驱动要素。采用多元Logistic回归模型,构建人口空间要素与绿色发展空间作用方程,明确人口与绿色发展空间之间的作用机制。在保持经济发展水平一致的前提下,模拟传统型人口增长和创新型人口增长两类情景下,绿色发展空间的演化结果。从成都市的研究可以发现,创新型人口的增长提高了土地的利用效率和潜力,导致土地需求下降,相同的空间单元中人口密度最高可提升49%。创新型人口的增加对绿色发展具有正向激励作用,传统型人口的增加对绿色发展具有负向激励作用。

关键词: 创新型人口, 资源型人口, 绿色发展空间, 作用机制, 空间演化模拟

Abstract: Under the concept of inclusive economic growth with the theme of green development, research the feedback mechanism between the population spatial factors and green development space. By using geographic information method and spatial analysis technology, and based on the monitoring results of geographical conditions, the spatial elements of green development were extracted to form the spatial pattern of green development. At the same time, the spatial carriers of social and economic factors were extracted, the statistical indicators of social economy were quantified, and the traditional resource factors and innovation-driven factors in social economy were measured. Using the multiple logistic regression model to construct the feedback equation between population spatial factors and green development space, to establish the feedback mechanism between them. It can be found from the study of Chengdu that the growth of innovative population improves the efficiency and potential of land use, leading to the decrease of land demand, and the population density in the same space unit can be increased by up to 49%. The increase of innovative population has a positive incentive effect on green development, while the increase of traditional population has a negative incentive effect on green development.

Key words: innovative population, traditional population, green development space, feedback mechanism, spatial evolution simulation

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