关键词: 东路冷空气, 分型, 降温幅度, 苏北地区

Abstract: Meteorological statistics from 2001 to 2010 of northern Jiangsu province was used to divided into four types in accordance with the standards of the cold air from east road, then forecast indexes were obtained according to the characteristics of each model.The relationship between the 48 hours cooling amplitude of the 850 hPa and 9250 hPa with the ground of eligible cases within 10 years was analyzed, then the data from 2011 to 2012 was chosen to forecast according to the standards of indexes. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of east road cold air was over 90%, and the type of two troughs with one ridge was the most, followed by the horizontal trough turned vertical type and blocking high type, the low trough eastward type was not appear. The cooling amplitude of upper temperature has relatively good referential meaning for the ground temperature drop.

Key words: the cold air from east road, types, cooling amplitude, northern Jiangsu province