关键词: 饲料价格, 生鲜乳价格, 向量自回归模型, 脉冲响应, 方差分解

Abstract: In recent years, the price of fresh milk fluctuates frequently, which seriously affected the interests of producers and the health, stability and sustainable development of dairy industry. In this paper, monthly data of maize, soybean meal and fresh milk prices from January 2007 to December 2018 were selected as samples for empirical analysis. The fluctuation characteristics and changing trends of these three prices were analyzed. The VAR model wasused to explore the impact of feed prices on fresh milk prices, so as to reveal the impact mechanism of feed prices on fresh milk prices. The results showed that there wasa long-term stable equilibrium relationship between feed price and fresh milk price, and the change of feed price will inevitably lead to the change of fresh milk price, and the effect was lagging behind. In the short run, the rising feed prices represented by corn and soybean meal will inevitably lead to the rising price of fresh milk in the next period; in the long run, the price of fresh milk wasmainly affected by its own price, but the feed price will have a significant impact on the price of fresh milk.

Key words: feed price, fresh milk price, vector autoregression model, impulse response function, variance decomposition