湖北农业科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (20): 43-47.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.20.008

• 资源·环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年高淳二十四节气气温变化特征及突变分析

孔维财, 宋如东, 陆一磊, 夏晓敏   

  1. 江苏省南京市高淳区气象局,南京 211300
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-21 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-11-05
  • 作者简介:孔维财(1986-),男,江苏南京人,工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象研究,(电话)18912915106(电子信箱)946959277@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD1002201); 南京市气象科研项目(NJ201802)

Air temperature variation and mutation analysis of the twenty-four solar terms in Gaochun over 50 years

KONG Wei-cai, SONG Ru-dong, LU Yi-lei, XIA Xiao-min   

  1. Gaochun Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 211300,China
  • Received:2020-09-21 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-11-05

摘要: 基于南京市高淳区1970—2019年逐日气温资料,采用距平分析、线性相关分析、M-K突变检验等方法,对二十四节气气温变化特征和物候性节气(惊蛰、清明、小满和芒种)进行突变分析。结果表明,高淳区近50年二十四节气平均气温、初终日气温呈明显的正态、单峰型特点,且趋势一致;大暑和大寒分别是一年中最热和最冷的节气;大寒至小暑气温逐渐上升,大暑至小寒气温逐渐下降;气温距平在20世纪80年代前多为负值,在20世纪90年代后多为正值。惊蛰气温在1993年存在突变点,上升趋势显著变大,小满在1985年存在转暖的突变点。各节气气温均呈上升趋势,趋势显著,这与全球气候变暖的大背景相符合,高淳区的农事活动可适当提前。

关键词: 二十四节气, 气温变化, 突变分析, 南京市高淳区

Abstract: Based on the daily temperature data from 1970 to 2019 in Gaochun district, Nanjing city, using anomaly analysis, linear correlation analysis, M-K mutation test and other methods, the temperature change characteristics and the mutation of the 24 solar terms were analyzed (Insects awaken, Clear and bright, Grain buds, Grain in ear). The results showed that the average temperature and the first and last day temperature of the 24 solar terms in Gaochun in recent 50 years showed obvious normal and unimodal characteristics, and the trend was consistent. Great heat and Great cold were the hottest and coldest solar terms of the year respectively. The temperature rises gradually from Great cold to Slight heat, and decreases gradually from Great heat to Slight cold. The temperature anomaly was mostly negative before the 1980s and positive after the 1990s. There was a sudden change in Insects awaken temperature in 1993, the rising trend became significantly larger, and there was a sudden change in warming in Grain buds in 1985. The temperature of each solar term showed a significant upward trend, which was consistent with the background of global warming. Agricultural activities of Gaochun district can be appropriately advanced.

Key words: twenty-four solar terms, air temperature variation, mutation analysis, Gaochun district of Nanjing city

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