关键词: 现货价格风险, 苹果期货, 期现价格关系, 陕西省

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the development status of apple industry in Shaanxi Province, the main factors affecting the fluctuation of apple spot price in recent years were analyzed. Taking Red Fuji apple in Shaanxi Province as an example,the relationship between China’s apple futures price and spot price was tested by using Granger causality model, and then the problems needing attention in the application of apple futures were discussed to manage spot price risk. The measurement model test results showed that the spot price of apples was the Granger cause for the fluctuation of its futures price, and the changes of the two were linked with each other. Therefore, the futures market of apples could be used to manage the fluctuation risk of its spot price. It also put forward that to give full play to the practical effect of hedging against risks of apple futures, the futures brokerage companies should advertise apple futures. Fruit farmers and related enterprises should deal with the relationship between production and sales of spot goods and futures hedging.

Key words: spot price risk, apple futures, relationship between futures and spot prices, Shaanxi Province