关键词: 土地生态安全指数, DPSIR模型, 灰色系统GM（1, 1）模型, 障碍度模型（ODM）, 河南省洛阳市

Abstract: In order to explore the current situation and main influencing factors of land ecological security in Luoyang City, based on the DPSIR model, 24 evaluation indicators were selected to construct an evaluation indicator system. The entropy weight method, obstacle degree model （ODM）, and grey system GM（1,1） model were used to evaluate and predict the land ecological security situation in Luoyang City from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that the land ecological security in Luoyang City showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2020, with relatively small fluctuations from 2010 to 2017. In 2018, the land ecological security index increased significantly, from 0.480 5 to 0.602 7;in 2020, the level of land ecological security increased from a critical safety level to a relatively safe level, with factors such as natural population growth rate, pesticide consumption per unit of arable land, per capita park green space area, and the proportion of tertiary industry output being important driving forces for the index’s increase;the subsystem with the highest weight was the response subsystem, and the single indicator with the highest weight was the per capita park green space area; the indicator with the highest frequency of occurrence among obstacle factors was the harmless treatment rate of household waste;according to the prediction results of the grey system GM（1,1） model, the land ecological security level in Luoyang City would reach the safety level in 2023.

Key words: land ecological security index, DPSIR model, grey system GM（1, 1） model, obstacle degree model （ODM）, Luoyang City, Henan Province