关键词: 农民种粮积极性, 粮价波动, 政策补贴, 演化博弈, 仿真分析

Abstract: The evolutionary game model among farmers, government and third-party enterprises was constructed, and the evolutionary stability of farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain in a balanced decision by all parties was theoretically analyzed. On this basis, the case data was used for simulation analysis, and the simulation results verified the theoretical analysis results. The study found that farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain would change significantly with the fluctuation of grain purchase price; grain subsidy alone did not help farmers to increase their enthusiasm for growing grain; and prolonged subsidies might bring more uncertainty to farmers and third-party enterprises.

Key words: farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain, grain price fluctuation, policy subsidies, evolutionary game, simulation analysis