关键词: 耕地“非粮化”, 农户经济收入, 向量自回归模型, 中国东部地区

Abstract: Using data from the 2005—2015 National Rural Fixed Observation Point Survey, a vector autoregressive model was developed for eastern China to explore the dynamic relationship between the share of farm household income from cash crop cultivation in total cultivation income and the use of arable land for non-food crop cultivation by farm households. The results showed that farmers’ income in the eastern region was less dependent on the “non-food” use of arable land; solving the problem of “non-food” use of arable land would not unduly affect farmers’ economic income; the cultivation of cash crops by farmers in the eastern region could contribute to the growth of their income to a certain extent. Therefore, it was necessary to combine national food security with the vision of increasing farmers’ incomes, and to formulate policy guidelines that were tailored to the situation in the eastern region, so as to empower agricultural and rural development.

Key words: non-grain transformation of cultivated land, farmers’ economic income, vector autoregression model, eastern regions of China