关键词: 能源价格, 粮食生产, 要素, 传导机制, 粮食价格

Abstract: With the drastic fluctuation of international energy prices, the risk of grain production in China is also increasing. Analyzing the conduction mechanism of domestic and foreign energy prices to the main factors of grain production in China is conducive to discriminating grain price fluctuations and identifying risks as soon as possible. The energy and food prices from January 2014 to March 2022 were empirically analyzed through VAR model. The results showed that the input of energy factors led to the increase of grain production factors, and the higher the importance of the input factors, the higher the conductivity. The coal price affected the wheat price by affecting the gasoline price and the diesel price, and the impact on the wheat price was positive, the impact on the soybean price was negative; crude oil price affected soybean price by influencing gasoline price, and the impact on soybean was positive, and the impact on wheat price was negative. The pulse of crude oil on wheat, rice and soybean was not obvious, but the pulse of nitrogen fertilizer on wheat, rice and soybean was obvious. When the importance of an input factor in grain production was higher, its conductivity to grain production price was higher; when the importance of an input factor in grain production was low, its conductivity to grain production price was low; with the increasing substitutability of input factors, their conductivity would be weakened gradually.

Key words: energy price, grain production, factors, conduction mechanism, grain price