关键词: 粮食主产区, 产能, 灾害损失, 评估模型, 中国

Abstract: To systematically reveal the evolution law of production capacity in China's major grain-producing areas and the impact of meteorological disasters on grain production, and to provide a scientific basis for regional grain yield prediction and disaster prevention and mitigation strategy formulation, based on the long-term statistical data of grain production and agricultural disasters in 13 major grain-producing areas of China from 1949 to 2023, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the dominant disaster types, and the disaster-affected rate and disaster-damaged rate were used to construct a grain meteorological yield response model, and the simulated yield for the corresponding years was calculated and compared with the actual yield. The results showed that in 2023, the sown area and grain yield in the major grain-producing areas increased by 13.27% and 5.98 times, respectively, compared with the base year (1949), the planting structure concentrated on the three major staple grains, and the production center exhibited a characteristic of increase in the north and decrease in the south. Flood and drought were the dominant disaster-causing factors, and the disaster vulnerability in the northern regions was generally higher than that in the southern regions. The simulated yield and actual yield in the 13 major grain-producing areas showed a good linear relationship, with coefficients of determination (R²) ranging from 0.835 6 to 0.976 4. In conclusion, the grain yield in the 13 major grain-producing areas of China steadily increased, but the threat of flood and drought disasters remained severe, the northern regions needed to focus on improving disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and the constructed assessment model had good prediction accuracy for grain yield.

Key words: major grain-producing areas, production capacity, disaster loss, assessment model, China