湖北农业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (17): 168-174.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.17.043

• 经济·管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

农村居民收入异质性对旅游消费支出的影响与预测——基于居民消费理论的实证分析

黄泽颖, 曲峻岭, 王东阳   

  1. 农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-19 发布日期:2019-11-14
  • 作者简介:黄泽颖(1987-),男,广东汕头人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事农业经济管理研究,(电话)13716627967(电子信箱)huangzeying@caas.cn;
  • 基金资助:
    中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2019-IFND)

The influence and forecast of rural residents' income heterogeneity on tourism consumption expenditure based on consumer theories' empirical analysis

HUANG Ze-ying, QU Jun-ling, WANG Dong-yang   

  1. Institute of Food and Nutrition Development,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2019-06-19 Published:2019-11-14

摘要: 旅游是居民生活水平提高的一个重要指标,而收入是促进农村居民旅游消费梯次升级的经济基础。利用1994—2016年国家统计数据,基于绝对收入假说、相对收入假说、持久收入假说、生命周期假说、理性预期假说等居民消费理论,实证分析农村居民人均可支配收入、工资性收入、经营性收入、财产性收入、转移性收入对其国内旅游消费支出的影响。结果表明,持久收入假说下的可支配收入作用最大,预计2019、2020年中国农村居民旅游消费支出将分别达到136和147元;持久收入、生命周期、理性预期假说下,工资性收入的拉动作用最大,而经营性收入、财产性收入分别在绝对收入假说和相对收入假说下的促进作用最大;整体上,农村居民的工资性收入对旅游消费支出的贡献最大。

关键词: 收入异质性, 旅游消费, 农村居民, 居民消费理论

Abstract: Tourism is an important indicator for improving the living standard of residents, and income is the economic basis for promoting the upgrading of tourism consumption level for rural residents. Using the 1994~2016 national statistical data, based on the absolute income hypothesis, the relative income hypothesis, the persistent income hypothesis, the life cycle hypothesis, the rational expectation hypothesis and other consumer consumption theories, empirical analysis of per capita disposable income, wage income, and operating income of rural residents is conducted. It is found that under the permanent income hypothesis, the disposable income had the greatest effect; it is estimated that the tourism consumption expenditure of rural residents in China will reach 136 and 147 yuan in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Under the hypothesis of long-term income, life cycle and rational expectation, wage income has the largest pulling effect, while operating income and property income have the greatest promotion under the absolute income hypothesis and relative income hypothesis. On the whole, the wage income of rural residents contributes the most to tourism consumption expenditure.

Key words: income heterogeneity, tourism consumption, rural residents, resident consumer theory

中图分类号: