关键词: 气象因子, 油茶（Camellia oleifera）, 油酸含量, 预测模型

Abstract: Based on the collection and processing of the oleic acid data from multiple Camellia oleifera sample plots in different county of Hunan province during 2012—2017 and the meteorological indices for each stage of growth and treatment of Camellia oleifera which computed by the nearby meteorological observation stations’ data during the same period, the method of principal component analysis had been used to research the impacts of the meteorological factors in different stages on content of oleic acid for Camellia oleifera, and a forecasting model were constructed based on above meteorological factors. The results showed that the effects of meteorological factors for the whole year of fruit picking, oil transformation and accumulation peak period, fruit enlargement peak period on oleic acid content were more significant than other periods, and the precipitation indexes, especially the precipitation and the longest continuous precipitation days were the key factors which affecting oleic acid. The oleic acid forecasting model constructed base on those factors had a relative high accuracy and had certain applicability.

Key words: meteorological factors, Camellia oleifera, oleic acid, forecasting model