关键词: 国际原油价格, 农产品价格, VAR模型

Abstract: With the gradual improvement of China's opening to the outside world,the price of China's agricultural products was increasingly affected by the price of international crude oil.Three mechanisms by which international crude oil price affect China's agricultural products price were analyzed.VAR models of international crude oil price and China's overall agricultural products price,soybean price and rapeseed price were established,and impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were performed.The results showed that changes in international crude oil price would have the same effect on China's agricultural products price in the short term,but would have the negative effect after a period of time.At the same time,affecting the overall price of agricultural products by affecting the price of biofuels was an important way for international crude oil price to affect China's agricultural products price.Finally,it put forward suggestions on how to stabilize the price of China's agricultural products.

Key words: international crude oil price, agricultural product price, VAR model