关键词: 土茯苓(Smilax glabra Roxb.), MaxEnt模型, 环境因子, 适生区预测, 潜在适生区

Abstract: To understand the changes in the potential suitable habitats of Smilax glabra Roxb. under climate change scenarios and to identify the dominant climatic factors influencing its distribution, 1 032 distribution sites of Smilax glabra Roxb. in China were collected. The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential suitable habitats of Smilax glabra Roxb. in China under current and future four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). The results showed that the MaxEnt model exhibited high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.905). The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Smilax glabra Roxb. were precipitation of the driest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and temperature seasonality. Under the current climate scenario, Smilax glabra Roxb. was mainly distributed in Central China, East China, South China, Southwest China, and Western China, with a total suitable habitat area of approximately 3.007 × 10⁶ km². Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat area for Smilax glabra Roxb. showed an increasing trend. However, the area of highly suitable habitat decreased slightly or remained relatively stable, while the area of moderately and lowly suitable habitats increased significantly.

Key words: Smilax glabra Roxb., MaxEnt model, environmental factors, suitable habitat prediction, potential suitable habitat