HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (9): 201-207.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.09.043

• Economy & Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on the spatial evolution trend of population in Hubei province since the period of reform and opening up

ZOU Peng1, WANG Ming-jie2, WU Si1, WANG Qian1   

  1. 1. Hubei Institute of Urban Planning and Design,Wuhan 430071, China;
    2. College of Public Administration, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai'an 271000, Shandong, China
  • Received:2020-01-16 Published:2020-07-22

Abstract: The spatial evolution law of the population in Hubei province in the past 40 years is analyzed by using the population gravity center method and the gray system model, and base on this, the population trend in the next decades to 2035 is predicted. The results show that, firstly, national policies such as family planning and market economy are the most important factors affecting the evolution of population spatial in Hubei province since the reform and opening up; secondly, Hubei province would have been in the middle stage of urbanization before 2035 with the population gathering to urban areas and urbanization still maintaining rapid development, so rural revitalization strategy is difficult to bring obvious rural population return during this period; thirdly, since the reform and opening up, the population center of gravity in Hubei province is shifting towards Wuhan,and even by 2035, Wuhan will still maintain a strong attraction to the population of the whole province, but the attractiveness of Wuhan's central urban area will be weakened, and the population growth in the suburbs will exceed that in the central urban area. The second and third conclusions further confirm the general law of urbanization.

Key words: population spatial evolution, grey system model, population gravity center, reform and opening up, Hubei province

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