Research on the risk of collapse and landslide in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area based on logistic regression model

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.06.008

Abstract

Abstract: 22 counties in the Wenchuan earthquake disaster area were selected as the study area. Based on 6 007 collapse and landslides data and multi-source information, using GIS technology, seven factors including elevation, slope, aspect, fault, lithology, rainfall, and land use were selected as the influencing factors for the evaluation of collapse and landslide susceptibility. Then based on the logistic regression model, the susceptibility to collapse was evaluated, and a susceptibility zone map generated. The results showed that the distribution of historical collapse and landslide points fitted well with the zoning map of collapse and landslide susceptibility. Wenchuan county, Mao county, Beichuan county, Mianzhu city, Qingchuan county, and Pingwu county in this area were areas with high susceptibility to collapse and landslides. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the success rate and prediction rate of the model, and the AUC （Area under curve） of the training sample set was 0.84, and the AUC of the verification sample set was 0.79, indicating that the logistic regression model used in this paper had a high prediction accuracy.

Key words: Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, collapse, landslide, logistic regression model, susceptibility assessment

CLC Number:

P642

YANG Wei-hua, YANG Zhi-qiang, ZHAO Jian-lin, LIANG Yong-qi. Research on the risk of collapse and landslide in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area based on logistic regression model[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2021, 60(6): 42-48.

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