Abstract: Optimal allocation of water resources has become the core issue of green agricultural development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It is the key to clarify the internal driving factors and effects of agricultural water change. Based on the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2002 to 2017, the influencing factors of agricultural water was divided into technical level, industrial structure, production level and population size by using the logarithmic mean divisia index method. Furthermore, the effects of different factors on agricultural water were analyzed. The results showed that, as a whole, the output effect and population effect promoted the growth of agricultural water, in which the output effect was dominant, and the technology effect and the structure effect restrained the agricultural water. From a regional perspective, Shanghai city, Anhui province, Jiangxi province, Hubei province, Chongqing city, Sichuan province and Guizhou province played an overall role in promoting agricultural water. Jiangsu province, Zhejiang province, Hunan province and Yunnan province had a restraining effect on agricultural water.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt, Logarithmic mean divisia index, farm water use, driving factors, driving effect