Analysis of agricultural products logistics demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on grey forecast

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.01.037

Abstract

Abstract: Using MATLAB software, adopting the gray GM （1,1） model, the agricultural product output and agricultural product consumption of rural residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2019 were taken as the original data to predict the agricultural product logistics demand and make a scientific analysis of the agricultural product logistics demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results showed that the demand for agricultural products logistics in Beijing City showed a gradual decline trend and would decrease to 2.28 million tons by 2024, while the demand for agricultural products in Tianjin City and Hebei Province increased steadily. In particular, the demand for agricultural products logistics in Hebei Province would increase to 67.61 million tons in 2024, which may be related to the policy of dissolving non-capital functions. Under the premise of the implementation of this policy, the effective development suggestions of agricultural products logistics in Tianjin City and Hebei Province were put forward.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, agricultural product logistics, GM（1, 1） grey forecast model, demand forecast

CLC Number:

F326.6

YIN Yue, CHEN Yu-ting. Analysis of agricultural products logistics demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on grey forecast[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(1): 214-218.

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