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Spatial-temporal dynamic simulation of ecological carrying capacity in upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin based on CA-Markov model
HU Xing-xing, CHEN Xing, LU Juan-juan, CHEN Xia, ZHANG Qi-cheng
HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2023, 62 (3):
165-172.
DOI: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.026
Based on the three-phase land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the ecological footprint based on the ecosystem service value model was used to calculate the total amount of ecological carrying capacity of three phases and different land use types in the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin, a spatial distribution map of ecological carrying capacity was drawn, and its historical change trend and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed. Based on the CA-Markov model, the land use pattern of the basin in 2030 was stimulated, and the future ecological carrying capacity of the watershed was predicted. The results showed that the settlement and water area of the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin grew rapidly, and the conversion of forest and grassland was active. The grassland area was mostly transferred out, but it was still the dominant land class in the basin. With the active conversion of land use types, the ecological carrying capacity of the river basin generally showed a trend of “first decreasing and then increasing”. The forecast results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was predicted to increase from 1 844 795 ghm2 to 2 032 204 ghm2 between 2020 and 2030, an increase of 10.16%, and the cantribution of water area to the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was outstanding. The overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity in the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin was characterized by high in the northwest and low in the southeast, and the internal units showed a trend of patch aggregation in space with time.
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