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    Spatial-temporal dynamic simulation of ecological carrying capacity in upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin based on CA-Markov model
    HU Xing-xing, CHEN Xing, LU Juan-juan, CHEN Xia, ZHANG Qi-cheng
    HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES    2023, 62 (3): 165-172.   DOI: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.026
    Abstract157)      PDF (4093KB)(90)       Save
    Based on the three-phase land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the ecological footprint based on the ecosystem service value model was used to calculate the total amount of ecological carrying capacity of three phases and different land use types in the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin, a spatial distribution map of ecological carrying capacity was drawn, and its historical change trend and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed. Based on the CA-Markov model, the land use pattern of the basin in 2030 was stimulated, and the future ecological carrying capacity of the watershed was predicted. The results showed that the settlement and water area of the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin grew rapidly, and the conversion of forest and grassland was active. The grassland area was mostly transferred out, but it was still the dominant land class in the basin. With the active conversion of land use types, the ecological carrying capacity of the river basin generally showed a trend of “first decreasing and then increasing”. The forecast results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was predicted to increase from 1 844 795 ghm2 to 2 032 204 ghm2 between 2020 and 2030, an increase of 10.16%, and the cantribution of water area to the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was outstanding. The overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity in the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin was characterized by high in the northwest and low in the southeast, and the internal units showed a trend of patch aggregation in space with time.
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    Spatio-temporal evolution of coupling coordination of production-living-ecological space in the Yellow River Basin
    WANG Lei, ZHAN Pu-yuan, GUO Yue
    HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES    2023, 62 (3): 173-181.   DOI: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.027
    Abstract178)      PDF (1738KB)(70)       Save
    Combined with the coupling coordination model, the data on Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2018 was used to calculate coupling degree and coupling coordination degree, and the spatio-temporal evolution of production-living-ecological space was analyzed. The results showed that, in the past 16 years, the coupling degree of production-living-ecological space in the Yellow River Basin increased year by year, and experienced a transition from the antagonistic period to the coordinated coupling period. The coupling coordination degree showed a fluctuating rising trend, and nearly 80% of the regions improved from extreme misalignment to mild misalignment, but the regional differences were not obvious. The coupling coordination degree between every two of the production-living-ecological space was rising at different rates. The growth rate of “living-ecological” coupling coordination degree was less than that of the “production-living” and the “production-ecological” coupling coordination degree.
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