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Evaluation of the coordinated development of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industrial structure adjustment in Guangxi and the whole country

XU Zhong-yu, DENG Guo-xian, LI Li-ju, LIN Shu-heng

HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 2024, 63 (3): 183-190. DOI: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.03.028

Abstract （208）

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The impact of the output value of various industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Guangxi and the whole country on agricultural economic growth from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed by the grey correlation analysis method. The contribution rate and prediction model of the output value growth of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry were constructed and regression analysis was carried out. Then the coordination degree of the contribution rate of the adjustment of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery structure to economic growth was analyzed. The results showed that the grey correlation degree between the output value and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service industry in Guangxi showed a decreasing trend with the change of years, and the output value of fishery had a good correlation with the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The correlation between the output value and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services in the whole nation decreased year by year, while the correlation between the output value of fishery and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery showed a fluctuating downward trend. The contribution rate of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery structure adjustment to agricultural economy in Guangxi and the whole country was negative, and Guangxi fluctuated greatly. The national agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fisher structure adjustment was better than that of Guangxi. The adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in the whole country and Guangxi was high-quality coordination in 2007, 2008 and 2011, was good coordination in 2010, and was intermediate coordination in 2019. Therefore, in order to promote the adjustment and optimization of the structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Guangxi and the whole country, it was necessary to enhance the energy power of forestry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service industry, adjust the regional distribution of industries according to local conditions, extend the agricultural industry chain, and produce high-quality agricultural products, so as to achieve the purpose of promoting farmers’ income and agricultural economic growth.

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Driving effect of industrial structure upgrading on the temporal and spatial difference of regional water use intensity

LI Jia-hao, YANG Hao-lin, SUN Tao

HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 2024, 63 (3): 191-198. DOI: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.03.029

Abstract （168）

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From the perspective of time and space, the effect of regional water use intensity was decomposed into the industrialization effect, industrial structure upgrading effect, water-saving technology effect of the tertiary industry, carrying capacity effect of domestic water use, and the scale effect of urban population water use. The LMDI decomposition expansion model of temporal and spatial differences in regional water use intensity was constructed. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, the driving channels and internal influencing mechanisms of industrial structure upgrading on temporal and spatial differences in water use intensity were explored in depth. The results showed that the upgrading of industrial structure was an important factor to inhibit the increase of water use intensity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020, but its inhibitory effect had weakened year by year since 2012, and had turned to promote the growth of water use intensity, and then turned to inhibitory effect in 2020. Since 2011, there had been a weakening trend in the driving force of inhibiting or promoting the increase of water use intensity compared with Shanghai. The industrial structure adjustment of provinces and cities under the trend of service could inhibit the increase of water use intensity compared with Shanghai. Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Hunan Province, Jiangsu Province and Sichuan Province should strengthen the rational allocation of water resources between industries （especially between the first and second industries ） and optimize the water consumption structure within the industry （especially the second industry）. Guizhou Province, Hunan Province, Yunnan Province and Hubei Province had a low level of service, and still needed to further develop the tertiary industry.

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