湖北农业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (11): 125-130.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.11.031

• 经济·管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国省域农业现代化与城镇化的空间拟合分析

白瑶, 刘中兰   

  1. 中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-14 出版日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2019-12-05
  • 通讯作者: 刘中兰(1973-),女,湖北鄂州人,副教授,博士,主要从事农业扶贫问题方面的研究, (电话)13628661360(电子信箱)liuzl-pc@163.com。
  • 作者简介:白瑶(1994-),女(满族),宁夏银川人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为农业与资源问题,(电话)13006117033(电子信箱)baiyaoby1@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目“中国饮用水源地生态补偿机制研究”(17BFX131)

Evaluation of China's provincial agricultural modernization level and spatial Kuznets fitting with urbanization

BAI Yao, LIU Zhong-lan   

  1. School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China
  • Received:2019-03-14 Online:2019-06-10 Published:2019-12-05

摘要: 利用2007—2016年中国省域农业现代化和城镇化数据,首先进行主成分分析测算农业现代化得分;而后对农业现代化和城镇化进行空间自回归检验验证两者关系,并拟合出库兹涅茨曲线,探究城镇化对农业现代化的影响趋势。结果表明,10年间中国省域农业现代化水平均有显著提高,且空间自回归性较强;城镇化与农业现代化的关系呈平滑“N”型曲线,具有较强的正向影响。根据曲线走势可得到3个结论,首先中国各省(自治区、直辖市)在库兹涅茨曲线上的分布较散,差距较大;其次城镇化对农业现代化具有积极影响;最后提升农业现代化水平,应结合省际之间的带动作用和自身的积极发展,并重视城镇化对农业现代化不同阶段的推动作用。

关键词: 农业现代化, 新型城镇化, 空间计量, 指标体系

Abstract: Using the data of China's provincial agricultural modernization and urbanization from 2007 to 2016, the principal component analysis was first used to measure the agricultural modernization score; then the spatial autoregressive test of agricultural modernization and urbanization was used to verify the relationship and fit the library. The Kuznets curve explores the trends in the impact of urbanization on agricultural modernization. The results showed that, in the past ten years, the level of China's provincial agricultural modernization has been significantly improved, and the spatial autoregression is strong; the relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization has a smooth“N” shaped curve with strong positive influence, which can be come into the following three conclusions according to the trend of the curve. Firstly, the distribution of the Chinese provinces on the Kuznets curve is scattered and the gap is large. Secondly, urbanization has a positive impact on agricultural modernization;Finally, to improve the level of agricultural modernization, it should be combined with the inter-provincial action and its own positive development, and pay attention to the role of urbanization in the different stages of agricultural modernization.

Key words: agricultural modernization, new urbanization, spatial measurement, indicator system

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