关键词: 农业灾害, 应急管理能力, PPRR理论, 结构方程

Abstract: Under the background of the modernization of rural governance in the new era, based on the logic support of PPRR crisis management theory, the third regiment of the first division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps was selected as the research area. Starting from the four stages of prevention, preparation, response and recovery, combined with the theory and the actual situation of the first division and three regiments, 30 corresponding evaluation indexes of influencing factors were set. On this basis, the structural equation model （SEM） was introduced to explore the path relationship and chain logic of each stage and corresponding indicators in the life cycle of agricultural disasters, and to analyze the influence weight between the emergency management capabilities of the farms, so as to construct the hypothetical structural equation model of the factors affecting the evaluation of agricultural emergency management capabilities of the farms. The study found that crisis prevention, crisis preparation, crisis response and crisis recovery ability had significant positive effects on the improvement of agricultural emergency management ability in disaster response, and there were also significant effects between the two variables. Crisis response capability and crisis recovery capability have a significant positive impact on agricultural emergency management capability; effective risk assessment, integration of the upper and lower linkages of disaster reduction subjects, and reasonable allocation of personnel and materials have the most significant impact on crisis response capacity; the impact of continuous disaster tracking and monitoring, improved disaster assessment capacity and risk aversion capacity on crisis recovery capacity is most significant.

Key words: agricultural disaster, emergency management capability, PPRR theory, SEM model