太湖流域水资源-能源-粮食协同发展度评价

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.01.037

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究流域水资源-能源-粮食关联系统（WEFN）的协同发展状况,促进其可持续利用,基于水资源-能源-粮食纽带关系,从水资源、能源、粮食3个方面构建流域水资源-能源-粮食关联系统协同发展评价指标体系,以改进后的距离协同度模型为基础,与TOPSIS和灰色关联理论等结合,提出一种基于水资源、能源、粮食纽带关系的综合协同发展模型,并以太湖流域为例,测算2007—2019年各子系统的发展度、协同度,评价其协同发展状况及WEFN的协同发展度。结果表明,太湖流域WEFN协同发展度总体处于中等发展阶段,且存在由中等向良好阶段发展的趋势,呈波动上升。太湖流域水资源、能源、粮食各子系统发展度、协同度与协同发展度存在差距,但基本处于中等与良好阶段。其中,水资源子系统的协同发展程度较高,而能源对水资源及粮食的协同度是影响流域协同发展度的主要因素。子系统间协同度偏低是造成WEFN协同发展度较弱的原因,应以提高能源在水资源、粮食相关产业中的利用效率及优化能源消费结构为突破口,促进水资源、能源、粮食系统间的协同发展。

关键词: 水资源-能源-粮食, 协同发展度, 灰色关联, 协同优化, 太湖流域

Abstract: In order to study the coordinated development of the water resources-energy-food nexus （WEFN） in the river basin and promote its sustainable utilization, the evaluation index system of regional water resources-energy-food nexus coordinated development from three aspects of water resources, energy and food based on the relationship between them was constructed. Based on the improved distance coordinated degree model combined with TOPSIS and gray relational theory, a comprehensive coordinated development model based on the link between water resources, energy and food was proposed. Taking Taihu Lake Basin as an example to calculate the development degree and coordinated degree of the subsystems from 2007 to 2019, its coordinated development status and the coordinated development degree of WEFN were evaluated. The results showed that the coordinated development degree of WEFN in Taihu Lake Basin was in the medium development stage, and there was a trend from medium to good development stage, showing a fluctuating rise. There was a gap in the development degree, coordinated degree and coordinated development degree of water resources, energy and food subsystems in the Taihu Lake Basin, but it was basically in the medium and good stage. Among them, the degree of coordinated development of water resources subsystem was relatively high, and the coordinated degree of energy to water resources and food was the main factor affecting the coordinated development degree of the river basin. The low coordinated degree between subsystems was the reason for the weak coordinated development degree of WEFN. The breakthrough should be to improve the utilization efficiency of energy in water resources and food-related industries and optimize the structure of energy consumption to promote the coordinated development of water resources, energy and food systems.

Key words: water resources-energy-food, coordinated development degree, gray correlation, collaborative optimization, Taihu Lake Basin

中图分类号:

顾王婧, 吴兆丹. 太湖流域水资源-能源-粮食协同发展度评价[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2025, 64(1): 234-240.

GU Wang-jing, WU Zhao-dan. Evaluation of the coordinated development degree of water resources-energy-food in Taihu Lake Basin[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2025, 64(1): 234-240.

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