关键词: WOFOST模型, 河南烤烟, 敏感性分析, 适用性

Abstract: In order to clarify the applicability of the WOFOST model to Henan flue-cured tobacco, sensitivity analysis of model parameters was conducted by OTA method based on field experimental data, meteorological data, and agrometeorological observation data from 2013 to 2024. The trial and error method was used in combination with experimental data to adjust model parameters and evaluate the applicability of the model to the growth and development of Henan tobacco. The results showed that SPAN, TSUM1, SLATB0.0, DTSMTB30, EEFTB40, TMPFTB20, AMAXTB0.0, CVL and RMS were identified as highly sensitive parameters through sensitivity analysis. Using the debugged model to simulate and verify the growth period and biomass of flue-cured tobacco, the R² values for the bud stage and mature stage of tobacco were 0.89 and 0.83, RMSE were 3.4 and 2.4 days, and NRMSE were 1.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The RMSE of the model for simulating the leaf dry weight, stem dry weight, and leaf area index of tobacco were 198.0 kg/hm², 220.4 kg/hm², and 0.2 m²/m², and the NRMSE were 11.9%, 17.4%, and 11.8%, respectively. The adjusted model performed well in simulating the growth and development process of tobacco leaves. By comparing the simulated yields determined by four methods, it was found that calculating the average of daily leaf dry weight data for the first 60 days of maturity through the model had the best fitting effect as the simulated yield, with a simulation accuracy of 89.5%, RMSE of 326.1 kg/hm², and NRMSE of 10.7%. The model, after parameter debugging, could accurately simulate the changes in the growth process of Henan tobacco, providing a scientific management basis for actual production.

Key words: WOFOST model, Henan flue-cured tobacco, sensitivity analysis, applicability