关键词: 葡萄出口, “一带一路”沿线国家, 贸易潜力, 中国

Abstract: Based on the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database （UN Comtrade） data from 2000 to 2020, this study used Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation （PPML） to analyze the influencing factors of China’s grape exports to the countries along “the Belt and Road” by building an expanded gravity model, and calculated the export trade potential. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, China’s grape exports to countries along “the Belt and Road” were on the rise; the export concentration was high and most of them were Southeast Asian countries. The GDP of China, the GDP of the importing country, the population of the importing country, the landlocked status of the importing country, and the degree of market openness of the importing country had a significant positive impact on China’s grape exports, with the largest impact being the total population of the importing country; the average export price of grapes, grape production in importing countries, and the spatial distance between China and importing countries had a significant negative impact on China’s grape exports volume. Among them, the spatial distance between China and importing countries had the greatest impact. From the perspective of national trade potential, in 2020 grape exports, China’s trade relations with 20 countries were not close enough, and China had close trade relations with 5 countries; in terms of trade regions, China had close trade relations with Southeast Asia and enormous trade potential with Central Asia, West Asia, Northeast Asia, and South Asia.

Key words: grape exports, countries along “the Belt and Road”, trade potential, China