关键词: 景观生态格局, 土地利用, 城市扩展, 遥感监测, Markov预测模型, 嘉兴市

Abstract: Using the Landsat image data of Jiaxing City from 1989 to 2019, the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of land use in Jiaxing City were analyzed, and the future land use pattern of Jiaxing City was predicted based on the Markov prediction model. Combined with the analysis of urban expansion, the relationship between urban expansion and land use change was explored. The results showed that, from 1989 to 2019, the types of land use in Jiaxing City had changed greatly, the construction land had increased significantly, the rate of urbanization had accelerated, and the probability of cultivated land being converted into forest land and grassland had increased, indicating that the policy of “returning farmland to forest” in Jiaxing City achieved certain results. During the study period, the land use degree of Jiaxing City was relatively large, and the land use was still in the development period. It was expected that the growth rate of urban construction land would still be large by 2037, but the land use structure would be stable. From 1989 to 2019, the urban expansion of Jiaxing City had experienced two stages of medium-speed expansion and rapid expansion. The urban fractal dimension was maintained at about 1.35, and the overall morphological structure was relatively complex, which had a great impact on the land use structure. The city center of Jiaxing had moved to the southeast, northwest and northeast in three periods of 1989 to 2002, 2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019, respectively. The urban circularity and compactness were stable, and a stable urban distribution structure of “one main district and six subs districts, three zones and three belts” was gradually formed.

Key words: landscape ecological pattern, land use, urban expansion, remote sensing monitoring, Markov prediction model, Jiaxing City