关键词: 黄河流域, 农业经济, 粮食安全, 耦合协调

Abstract: Based on the panel data of nine provinces and autonomous regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022, the development levels of two systems, namely agricultural economic resilience and food security, were measured using the entropy-weight TOPSIS method. Subsequently, the coupling coordination relationship between the two systems and its spatial differentiation characteristics were analyzed by means of a coupling coordination model and a relative development degree model. Finally, the influencing factors of the coupling coordination relationship between the two systems were explored using a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The results showed that the agricultural economic resilience level in the Yellow River Basin had exhibited a fluctuating upward trend overall. The agricultural economic resilience level in the lower reaches regions was significantly higher than that in the upper and middle reaches regions. Shandong and Henan demonstrated relatively high levels of agricultural economic resilience. The food security level in the Yellow River Basin had shown minor fluctuations, with an upward trend emerging after 2019. The upper reaches regions had generally maintained relatively high food security levels, with Qinghai consistently ranking among the top. The coupling coordination level between agricultural economic resilience and food security in the Yellow River Basin had displayed a two-phase trend of first fluctuating decline and then fluctuating rise. The coupling coordination grade was predominantly at a barely coordinated level, indicating substantial room for improvement. Significant disparities in coupling coordination degrees were observed among different provinces and regions. The western provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin were classified as Type Ⅳ, the low-grinding agricultural-economic-resilience-lagging type; the northern provinces and regions were basically classified as Type Ⅴ, the high-grinding synchronous-development type; and the southern provinces and regions were classified as Type Ⅵ, the low-grinding food-security-lagging type. A negative impact on the coupling coordination degree was exerted by the level of scientific and technological inputs and the crop cultivation structure. A positive impact on the coupling coordination degree was exerted by the regional economic level and land quality. The degree of influence had significant spatial variability.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, agricultural economy, food security, coupling coordination