关键词: 人口城镇化, 土地城镇化, 经济城镇化, 耦合协调, 灰色预测, 昌吉州

Abstract: Based on the panel data from 2012 to 2021, the comprehensive evaluation index system of population-land-economy urbanization system was constructed. The entropy method, coupling coordination model and GM（1,1） grey model were selected to calculate and analyze the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination development of population-land-economy urbanization, and predict the coupling coordination of population-land-economy urbanization from 2022 to 2024. The results showed that the development level of population-land-economy urbanization and its subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021, among which the development speed of land urbanization subsystem was the fastest. The coupling level of population-land-economy urbanization system was high, and the coupling degree was 0.816~0.964 in the research period. The coupling coordinated development level of population-land-economy urbanization was also developed from the primary coordination in 2012 to the good coordination in 2021. From 2022 to 2024, the coupling coordination degree of population-land-economy urbanization system would continue to rise, and it would be expected to achieve high-quality coordination in 2023. Although the coupling coordination of population-land-economy urbanization in Changji Prefecture was well, when it would come to higher-quality development, the existing problems such as inefficient land use, insufficient development power, industrial imbalance, and insufficient attention to human urbanization still existed. It was suggested to promote the reform of land and household registration system, improve the investment and financing system for new urbanization construction, upgrade the industrial structure, build a complementary system of urbanization functions, and strengthen the coordinated development of the system.

Key words: population urbanization, land urbanization, economy urbanization, coupling coordination, gray forecast, Changji Prefecture