关键词: 土地利用, 时空演变, 生态系统服务价值, 损益, 灰色预测模型, 昌吉市

Abstract: By analyzing the remote sensing data of land use in Changji City from 2000 to 2020, the mutual transfer changes of land types and ecological value were explored under the economic development of Changji City. The results showed that the grassland area of Changji City accounted for the largest proportion of the total area, accounting for more than 40.00% in all years. The area of grassland and water showed a decreasing trend, while the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. The area of grassland turned into cultivated land was 44 715.71 hm², which was the way of largest transfer change. Through the gray prediction model, it was predicted that the area of grassland and water was still in a declining trend but slowed down in the next 15 years, and the growth of cultivated land and construction land was also gradually slowed down. From 2000 to 2020, the total value of ecosystem services in Changji City showed a decreasing trend, from 12.049 billion yuan in 2000 to 11.348 billion yuan in 2020. The value of grassland was the largest, accounting for about 60% of the total value. In the changes of the value of each ecological system service, except for the ecological function of food production and raw material production, the value of other ecological functions decreased to varying degrees. The transfer of grassland, forestland and water caused a decrease of the value of ecosystem services, among which the transfer of grassland to unused land was the land transfer category with the greatest value loss.

Key words: land use, spatio-temporal evolution, ecosystem service value, profit and loss, grey prediction model, Changji City