关键词: 森林资源, 灰色预测, 有林地面积, 活立木总蓄积量, 森林覆盖率, 江西省

Abstract: Taking the five main forest resource index data of Jiangxi Province from 1998 to 2018, including forest land area, the total volume of standing trees, and forest coverage, as the time series, the gray theory prediction method was used to establish a dynamic prediction model. The results showed that the models established by gray forecasting had high accuracy and were all first-class models. The forest resources of Jiangxi Province would increase in the next 15 years. In 2028, the area of forest land in Jiangxi Province would be 10.91 million hm², the total volume of standing trees would be 741 million m³, and the forest coverage rate would be 65.27%. Predicting the future forest resources of Jiangxi Province could not only promote the sustainable development of forest resources, but also provide data support for the formulation of future forestry policies.

Key words: forest resources, grey forecast, area with woodland, the total volume of standing trees, forest coverage, Jiangxi Province