关键词: 土地利用, 动态度, 时空变化, 预测, PLUS模型, 异龙湖流域

Abstract: The remote sensing images of land use in the Yilong Lake Basin from 1990 to 2000 were extracted to obtain the spatial-temporal evolution trend of land use. At the same time, the research methods of land use transfer matrix and land use dynamics were used to explore the transfer in and out of different land use types in Yilong Lake in the past 31 years. Then, the PLUS model was used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the Yilong Lake in 2030 and 2050. The results showed that, from 1990 to 2020, the area of cultivated land and water in the Yilong Lake Basin had been reduced, the area of construction land had increased significantly, the area of forest land had a small decrease, and the area of grassland had not changed much. The results of the land use transfer matrix showed that a large amount of cultivated land had been converted into construction land, and a large number of the water areas had been converted into cultivated land, indicating that Shiping County had occupied a large amount of cultivated land in the past 31 years of urbanization expansion, and in order to achieve the requisition-compensation balance, the lake reclamation was implemented. The prediction results of the PLUS model showed that in 2050, the scale of construction land in the Yilong Lake Basin would increase, and the area of cultivated land would decrease.

Key words: land use, dynamics, spatio-temporal variation, forecast, PLUS model, Yilong Lake Basin