Abstract: The utilization of cultivated land in Yueyang city is analyzed by using ecological footprint model, Tapio decoupling model and grey prediction model. From the perspective of ecological footprint, the development of cultivated land footprint and the decoupling of agricultural output value are analyzed, and the future development is predicted. The results show that per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land in Yueyang city is high, in which the peak value of per capita ecological footprint is 0.99 hm²/people, the ecological deficit level is 0.833 hm²/people, the depth of ecological footprint is 6.3, and the footprint breadth is 0.100~0.157; The decoupling state is dominated by weak decoupling, with a frequency of 60% and a strong decoupling of 20%. The development of cultivated land is in a state of industrial development and resource pressure rising gradually. The forecast results show that the per capita ecological footprint will continue to increase, and the decoupling status is mainly weak. During the “14th five-year” period, Yueyang city needs to make continuous efforts in the high-quality development and protection of cultivated land.

Key words: cultivated land, ecological footprint, decoupling, Yueyang city, grey forecast