Multi scenario simulation of cultivated land landscape pattern in Western Hubei mountainous area based on PLUS model

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.11.010

Abstract

Abstract: Taking 19 counties （cities, districts） in Western Hubei as the research object, the PLUS model was used to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution law of cultivated land landscape under the constraints of natural conditions and the dual constraints of natural and socio-economic conditions, and clarify the important influencing factors of cultivated land landscape pattern. The results showed that the number of cultivated land in Western Hubei would still show a downward trend in the future. The main factors affecting cultivated land change were elevation, vegetation cover and hydrological conditions. The spatial distribution pattern of patch shape was significantly affected by topography, which was characterized by superior in the north and inferior in the south; in terms of time change, the cultivated land patch shape showed an obvious trend of optimization and development. In terms of patch pattern, the overall spatial aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation of the cultivated land patch in Western Hubei were poor, and there was a risk of continuous deterioration of cultivated land patch pattern. The difference of multi scenario simulation showed that the regular development of the cultivated land patch would be limited by social and economic activities, and only driven by natural conditions, the cultivated land landscape was easier to develop in the direction of complexity and fragmentation.

Key words: cultivated land, landscape pattern, PLUS model, multi scenario simulation, Western Hubei mountainous area

CLC Number:

F301.21

PENG Hong-bing, SONG Jian, YIN Wen, QIAN Zhao-dong, TENG Xin, MENG Xue. Multi scenario simulation of cultivated land landscape pattern in Western Hubei mountainous area based on PLUS model[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(11): 51-59.

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