HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2022, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (11): 88-92.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.11.017

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Prediction on geographical potential distribution area of Lamiophlomis rotata

under climate change   

  1. XIONG Yu-dan
  • Received:2021-03-29 Online:2022-06-10 Published:2022-07-06

Abstract: In order to understand the influence of climate factors on the growth status of Lamiophlomis rotata, 110 geographic information points and 19 climate variables were used to simulate and analyze the main factors affecting the distribution of Lamiophlomis rotata by ArcGIS and MaxEnt model. The distribution patterns of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s were predicted. The results showed that, the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.975 and 0.978, respectively, and the model is highly reliable in simulating the contemporary potential distribution area. Isotherm ality(bio13), mean temperature of the warmest season(bio10) and precipitation of the warmest season(bio18) are the main climatic variables affecting the geographical distribution of Lamiophlomis rotata. Lamiophlomis rotata is mainly distributed in the southwest plateau of China, including the western part of Sichuan Province and the eastern part of Tibet Autonomous Region. The optimum growth area of Lamiophlomis rotata is decreasing from West to East. Compared with the area of growth zone under the current climate scenario, the area of growth zone under the future climate scenario will decrease to a certain extent, and the growth zone will decrease from the edge of growth zone to the center of growth zone.

Key words: climate change, Lamiophlomis rotata, MaxEnt model, potential distribution area

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