Research progress on quantitative assessment of agricultural adaptation effect under the background of climate change

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.05.001

Abstract

Abstract: The quantitative evaluation of the effect of agricultural adaptation will be helpful to the formulation and decision-making of agricultural adaptation strategy and planning. This paper summarized the research progress of quantitative assessment of agricultural adaptation effect under the background of climate change by literature review and comparative analysis, and tried to find solutions to the related problems from methods, models and other aspects. The results show that the existing quantitative evaluation of agricultural adaptation to climate change mainly includes two aspects. ①From the perspective of crop growth and development, crop model is often used to evaluate the changes of crop growth and development parameters such as crop growth and development process and yield before and after adaptation; ② from the perspective of economic benefits, it mainly focuses on the analysis of cost input and economic output of agricultural adaptation strategies. It was suggested that we should strengthen the quantitative evaluation research on the effect of agricultural adaptation adjustment under the future climate change scenario, establish the targeted quantitative evaluation methods and models of agricultural adaptation; according to the characteristics of complementary advantages of various economic analysis methods, use a variety of economic analysis methods to carry out the quantitative evaluation research on agricultural adaptation strategies; combine uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate agricultural adaptation adjustment effect.

Key words: climate change, agricultural adaptation, quantitative assessment, uncertainty

CLC Number:

P49
P467

CHEN Si-ning, GUO Jun, ZHAO Yan-xia, LI Xing-yang, CHEN Yue-hao, GUO Yu-di. Research progress on quantitative assessment of agricultural adaptation effect under the background of climate change[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2021, 60(5): 5-12.

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