Abstract: Based on the PLUS model, the land use situation in ecologically vulnerable areas of Aba Prefecture in 2030 was predicted, and the InVEST model was used to calculate the habitat quality in 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030, and analyze its temporal and spatial evolution. The results showed that the degradation of grassland and wetland in the study area was significant and the bare land continued to increase. It was estimated that the area of bare land would reach 334.38 km² in 2030; compared with 2000, there would be 204.55 km² of wetland degradation. Among the driving factors, rainfall was the main factor limiting the expansion of forest land and wetlands, which reflected the importance of water conservation function; there was little difference in the degree of grasslands affected by various factors, the grass land generally grew in places far from the government, and the area expansion was limited by DEM; air temperature was the main factor leading to the increase of bare land. The habitat quality was generally high, but the spatial distribution varied greatly, and there was a slow deterioration trend. It was expected that the area with low habitat quality would increase by 670.28 km² in 2030 compared with 2000, mainly caused by the expansion of cultivated land and construction land. The rate of habitat quality degradation would slow down in the future, but artificial measures were still needed to prevent the decline.

Key words: PLUS model, land use prediction, InVEST model, habitat quality, Aba Prefecture