Multi-scenario simulation of land use and changes of ecosystem service value in Changzhou City based on FLUS model

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.11.009

Abstract

Abstract: Taking Changzhou City of Jiangsu Province as the study area, based on remote sensing images from 2000 to 2020, the FLUS model and the ecosystem service value （ESV） assessment method were used to systematically study the impacts of land use changes on ESV in Changzhou City in 2035 under three different scenarios of natural development, cultivated land preservation and ecological protection. The results showed that the dynamic degree of land use in Changzhou City showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020. Among them, the highest amount of transferred out was cultivated land, and the highest amount of transferred in was construction land. The ESV in Changzhou City from 2000 to 2020 demonstrated a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing, owing to the impact of land use changes. The water area exerted the primary impact on the change of ESV, and regulatory and support services were the two main ecosystem service functions in Changzhou City. The ESV of Changzhou City exhibited significant variations under different scenario simulations, with the natural development scenario resulting in the lowest ESV and the ecological protection scenario resulting in the highest ESV. Finally, it was recommended that the ecological protection scenario was the best development model to optimize the regional land use structure and maintain the value of ecosystem services, which should be used as a long-term development strategy for future land use in Changzhou City.

Key words: land use, multi-scenario simulation, ecosystem service value, FLUS model, Changzhou City

CLC Number:

X321
F301.2

HE Yu-chen, JING Xiao-dong, SUN Yuan-yuan. Multi-scenario simulation of land use and changes of ecosystem service value in Changzhou City based on FLUS model[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2024, 63(11): 47-56.

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