Attribution identification of runoff changes of the source region of Danjiang River in the southern Qinling Mountains based on Budyko hypothesis

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.09.004

Abstract

Abstract: In order to clarify the main influencing factors of headwater runoff change of the Danjiang River, the variation trend of precipitation and runoff in the source region of Danjiang River from 1974 to 2020 was analyzed by using the elastic coefficient method of Budyko hypothesis, and the contribution of factors affecting runoff change was quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the rainfall increased in the source region of Danjiang River, while evaporation and runoff decreased, and the evapotranspiration decreased significantly （P<0.05）. The study period was divided into the benchmark period and variable period by the mutation year 1989. The average elastic coefficient of precipitation, potential evaporation and underlying surface parameters for the benchmark and variable period were 1.93, -0.93, -1.37, and 2.43, -1.43, -1.26, respectively. The runoff of the source region of Danjiang River was the most sensitive to precipitation. The contribution rate of potential evapotranspiration was 54.76% from 1974 to 1988, and was enlarged to 68.54% from 1989 to 2020. Evapotranspiration was the main factor affecting the runoff change of the source region of Danjiang River in recent years, and the degree of influence was increasing, while the underlying surface had the smallest impact on runoff.

Key words: climate change, Budyko hypothesis, runoff change, source region of Danjiang River, Qinling Mountains

CLC Number:

P333

ZHAO Pei, MA Chen-xi, ZHAO Shi-fa, WANG Zhe. Attribution identification of runoff changes of the source region of Danjiang River in the southern Qinling Mountains based on Budyko hypothesis[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(9): 20-24.

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