Abstract: To optimize the land use pattern of resource-based cities in arid regions and synergistically promote low-carbon transition and ecological protection, this study took Karamay City as the research object and systematically explored the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and future evolution trends of its land use carbon emissions. The carbon emission coefficient method, Tapio decoupling model, and LMDI decomposition model were comprehensively applied to evaluate the carbon emission effects of land use from 2000 to 2020, and the PLUS model was coupled with the STIRPAT model to simulate and predict the land use pattern and carbon emission trends under four scenarios for 2030, natural development, ecological protection, cultivated land protection, and urban development. The results showed that land use in Karamay City from 2000 to 2020 exhibited a “five increases and one decrease” trend, with net carbon emissions nearly doubling. Construction land was the core carbon source, while the carbon sink function of ecological land such as forestland and grassland was weak. Carbon emissions and economic development showed an overall weak decoupling relationship. The economic output effect and the construction land scale effect were the main driving forces for the increase in carbon emissions, while the energy efficiency effect was the key inhibiting factor. The multi-scenario prediction for 2030 showed that under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land was effectively suppressed and net carbon emissions were reduced to the lowest level. The development model corresponding to this scenario was the optimal path that gave consideration to both ecological protection and carbon emission reduction.

Key words: land use, carbon emission effect, multi-scenario prediction, PLUS model, STIRPAT model, Karamay City